News Recap • Week 16 2025

Check the news below and make sure to visit my latest Market Recap as well.

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Macro

• The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basispoints, lowering its key rate from 2.5% to 2.25%. The cut was fully expected. The ECB also said that the outlook for growth has deteriorated due to rising trade tensions. They also showed confidence that the inflation rate will settle around 2%, clearly indicating that there’s room to lower rates even further to bolster the economy.
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that he expects the inflationary impact of tariffs to be transitory. Fingers crossed he’s right.
• And speaking of crossing our fingers, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is 100% certain that the US won’t enter a recession this year. Even if the US does avoid a recession this year, this was a bold statement to make.
• US retail sales increased 1.4% in March, better than the 1.2% Dow Jones estimate and much better than the 0.2% increase in February. Consumers were clearly still willing to spend despite recession fears and historically low consumer sentiment. However, the trend may look very different in April where the trade war really took off.
• South Korea on Tuesday announced a 33 trillion won ($23.25 billion) support package for its semiconductor industry. This came in response to the uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs.
• WTO warned on Wednesday that global trade outlook has “deteriorated sharply” in the wake of Donald Trump’s tariff regime.
• US financial conditions are now the tightest they’ve been since the 2020 pandemic panic.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that the Federal Reserve is “absolutely” ready to help stabilize the market if needed, giving some relief to investors.
• … However, Fed chair Jerome Powell also pointed to the potential dilemma between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth in a speech on Wednesday. Investors seemed to interpret this as a hawkish statement with no clear signs of rate cuts on the horizon. US equities ended the day with big losses.
• China exports rallied over 12% in March from a year earlier, marking the biggest jump since October and beating estimates for 4.4% growth. The surge was largely driven by companies frontloading shipments ahead of the new tariffs.
• China’s Q1 GDP growth came in at 5.4%, beating estimates for 5.1%. Retail sales and industrial output in March grew 5.9% and 7.7% year-over-year, beating expectations for 4.2% and 5.8% respectively. The urban unemployment rate also ticked down to 5.2% from a two-year high of 5.4% in February.
• India’s annual inflation rate fell for a fifth straight month to 3.34% in March. Economists had expected it to come in at 3.6%. The cooling inflation strengthens the case for further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India.
• Singapore Ministry of Trade cuts its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1 - 3% to 0 - 2%. This came after lower-than-expected growth of 3.8% in Q1 compared to economists’ 4.3% forecast.
• US consumers’ expectations about personal finances over the next year dropped to the lowest level on record, undercutting the 2008 financial crisis by 8%. The survey also showed a clear difference between Democrat and Republican voters, with the former being close to outright panic.
• The annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 2.6% in March, lower than the 2.8% reading in February and the 2.7% forecast. This was positive news for the Bank of England and its 2% inflation target.
• Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.2% in March from a year earlier. The rate matched the median forecast but was an acceleration from the 3% measure in February. It has been steadily creeping upward since early 2024.

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Other

• Apple produced $22 billion worth of iPhones in India in the 12 months ended March, an increase of almost 60% compared to the prior year. This accounts for almost 20% of its entire iPhone production.
• Apple sold the most smartphones of any company in Q1 2025, right ahead of Samsung. The two had 19% and 18% market share respectively. Xiaomi is catching up though, now with a market share of 14%.
• … however, Apple was the only major manufacturer to see a decline in smartphone shipments in China in Q1. Its market share declined to 13.7% from 17.4% in the previous quarter.
• Hermès surpassed LVMH as the world’s most valuable luxury company after the former delivered a big earnings and revenue miss.
• Nvidia announced plans to mass produce AI supercomputers in Texas as part of its $500 billion US infrastructure investment.
• The US government banned Nvidia from selling its H20 chips to China. The company said it will come with a $5.5 billion charge to Q1 earnings. AMD also warned of a $800 million hit from the new restrictions.
• Alibaba’s Quark surpassed ByteDance’s Doubao and DeepSeek to become China’s most popular AI app in March. Quark has almost 150 million monthly active users worldwide.
• Pfizer scrapped its daily weight loss pill after a trial patient experienced a liver injury. The market reaction was muted.
• Eli Lilly’s latest trial data showed its new weight-loss pill works as well as its blockbuster drug Ozempic for lowering weight and blood sugar in diabetes patients. An easy-to-use treatment in the form of a pill could significantly expand the market for Eli Lilly. Shares jumped 14.3% on Thursday after the data was released while Novo Nordisk dropped 7.6% on the New York Stock Exchange.
• OpenAI is reportedly in talks to acquire AI coding startup Windsurf for $3 billion.
• Lyft is set to enter the European market with its $200 million acquisition of FreeNow.

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Earnings

• Netflix reported revenue slightly above expectations with earnings coming in well above. The company also reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance of $43.5 to $44.5 billion, saying there’s been no material change to its overall business outlook (despite tariff uncertainty). Shares rose in after hours on Thursday and once again traded above $1,000.
• Bank of America reported earnings of 90 cents per share, beating expectations for 82 cents. Revenue came in at $27.51 billion, also topping estimates as well. Shares jumped 3.6% after the report on Tuesday.
• Goldman Sachs delivered a solid earnings beat of $14.12 per share vs $12.35 expected. Revenue came in at $15.06 billion vs $14.81 billion expected. Shares rose 1.9% on Monday after the report.
• Citigroup’s Q1 revenue and earnings came in above expectations. Shares rose 1.76% on Tuesday after the report.
• LVMH posted an unexpected decline in Q1 sales, falling short of even the most pessimistic analyst’s forecast. The stock plummeted 7.8% after the report.
• UnitedHealth plummeted 19% on expectations of higher medical costs and much lower earnings this year. The massive miss dragged down industry peers as well as the Dow Jones at large.
• Taiwan Semiconductor beat both revenue and net income expectations. Net income increased 60% from the same period last year. The company also stuck to its revenue forecast despite the increased macroeconomic uncertainty. The stock closed virtually unchanged after the report.
• ASML reported net sales below expectations and cited uncertainty as a reason why the company could end up with revenue in the lower end of its 2025 guidance. Shares fell more than 7% on Wednesday after the report.
• United Airlines delivered a small revenue miss but a significant earnings beat. The company also took the unusual step to provide two separate 2025 profit outlooks and called the economy “impossible to predict”. The stock closed flat after the report on Wednesday.