News Recap • Week 12 2025

Check the news below and make sure to visit my latest Market Recap as well.

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Macro

• The Federal Reserve kept rates steady at 4.25 - 4.5%, as expected. It simultaneously downgraded its economic growth projection and raised its outlook for inflation this year. It also announced a further scaling back of its quantitative tightening. However, the Fed still sees two more rate cuts this year. Investors seemed to like what they heard, sending US equities higher after the announcement.
• Retail sales in China rose by 4% in the January - February period compared to last year. That was above the 3-7% growth rate in December but in line with expectations. Industrial production expanded 5.9% from a year ago, down from the growth rate in December but above forecast. Fixed asset investments year-to-date rose by 4.1%, beating expectations for 3.6%.
• China’s new home prices fell 0.1% in February and 4.8% on a year-on-year basis.
• The German parliament passed the debt reform that includes a €500 billion infrastructure and climate fund along with key changes to the country’s debt break rule.
• The OECD lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 3.1%, down from 3.2% in 2024. It also lowered its growth forecast for the US from 2.4% to 2.2% this year, and from 2.1% to 1.6% next year. The OECD cites higher trade barriers and increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
• US retail sales increased by just 0.2% in February, less than the 0.6% Dow Jones estimate. However, the so-called control group which strips out noncore sectors and feeds directly into GDP calculations beat expectations by rising 1%.
• Turkey’s central bank hiked the overnight lending rate from 42.5% to 46%. This came less than two weeks after the central bank cut the rate from 45%.
• The EU delayed implementing its first set of tariffs on US imports until the middle of April, allowing for additional time to find a potential resolution.
• Japan’s annual core inflation rate came in at 3% in February, higher than the 2.9% forecast. It was still a tick down from the 3.2% reading in January though. Headline inflation landed at 3.7%. The higher inflation strengthens the case for additional rate hikes to come. For now, Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady at 0.5% on Wednesday, as expected.
• President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday aimed at dismantling the U.S. Department of Education.
• Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 4.5% on Thursday, as expected.
• Presidents Trump and Putin on Tuesday agreed to an immediate energy and infrastructure ceasefire. It’s seen as an important step toward putting an end to the war in Ukraine.
• The inflation rate in Canada jumped from 1.9% in January to 2.6% in February, much higher than the 2.2% forecast.
• Trump picked Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to replace Michael Barr as vice chair for supervision at the central bank.

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Other

• Apple is reportedly losing over $1 billion a year on its streaming service.
• Tesla recalled the majority of all Cybertrucks due to a defect where a trim panel might detach from the vehicle.
• Nvidia is planning to invest hundreds of billions in US chip manufacturing.
• Nvidia revealed Blackwell Ultra and Vera Rubin, its next generation chips and GPUs expected to ship later this year and in 2026 respectively.
• Google has signed a deal to acquire cloud security startup Wiz for $32 billion in cash. If it goes through, it will be Google’s largest acquisition ever.
• PepsiCo is acquiring prebiotic soda brand Poppi for $1.95 billion. This comes shortly after rival Coca-Cola launched its own prebiotic soda brand called Simply Pop.
• SoftBank will acquire chip design startup Ampere Computing for $6.5 billion.
• xAI has acquired generative AI video startup Hotshot.
• Canary Capital filed for a first-of-its-kind ETF that will hold NFTs from the Pudgy Penguins collection along with the associated PENGU token.

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Earnings

• Nike delivered a big earnings beat but guidance well below consensus. The stock dropped 5.46% after the report to its lowest level since the COVID crash five years ago.
• FedEx reported Q3 earnings that fell short of expectations while also lowering its full-year profit and revenue forecast amid soft demand and economic uncertainty. Shares fell 6.45% on Friday after the report.
• Tencent beat Q4 expectations for both revenue and earnings as profits soared 90% from a year ago.
• Chinese EV maker BYD launched its new Super e-Platform technology which will allow cars to achieve 400 kilometers of range with just 5 minutes of charging.